Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning is a technique that enables a company to identify the most important i Scenario Planning - Information Overload ssues which are changing the markets they operate in. By building a clear understanding of these issues the client can build long term stability, increase profitability and reduce wasted effort.

The use of key drivers of change to create scenarios allows clients to see how sustainable their organisation is in the long term. It also allows them to develop strategies that will result in improved sales, diversified product ranges and more efficient investments. Clients are able to test their customer value model under varying circumstances. This allows organisations to test how robust their value creation process is with respect to future change, identifying areas which require investment and generating options for the future.

The Futurist process is split into distinct modules, which can be combined flexibly to create a programme tailored to the need of the client.

Driver Analysis

Drivers of Change North East The first module is Driver Analysis, this process encourages management teams and boards to identify, in a noisy environment suffering from information overload, what information is most relevant to their operations. By filtering out the less relevant information, clients are able to focus on the issues that are likely to have the greatest impact on the way they operate and tackle the critical uncertainties associated with those drivers.

Drivers of change can be split into a number of general areas, ranging from the external economic environment through to changing social attitudes which alter consumer behaviour. This helps clients to analyse the potential consequences of each driver and their interaction with other drivers to identify issues that are critical to the companies future strategy. Once the impact and predictability of the drivers of change has been assessed, they can be synthesised into a framework of scenarios that provide a testing ground for future strategy.

Basing the scenarios on the key drivers identified by the client, ensures that they represent relevant and plausible views of future change. Creating scenarios from them produces realistic but stretching views of the future that enable a testing ground for future strategy.

To view some examples of drivers of change follow the link Futurist - Drivers of Change

Distinctive Competency Model

Distinctive Competency Model The next module in the process helps clients to map out the competencies that make their customer value creation unique among their competitors. This model addresses a number of key issues, including;

What is unique about the activities within our organisation?
How does our activity set create competitive advantage?
How do we use this advantage to generate results for our clients?
How do these results allow us to invest in the future of our organisation?
What distinctive competencies and resources does our organisation possess?

This process allows clients to analyse how their organisation works and to get a detailed understanding of which parts of their activities are distinctive and which are not. Once these distinctive competencies are identified, management can focus investment on them to ensure that they are maintained and developed in order to maximise customer value and future sales. This also means highlighting those things that do not add value so that they can be eliminated.

In addition, clients can examine how these competencies respond to future change. By using the scenarios organisations can begin to see how the changing external environment may require them to operate in different ways. This approach helps users to ensure that their organisation continues to create value for customers despite changing market conditions.

Options Analysis

The final stage of the process is to generate action plans based on the analysis. The action plan will include specific recommendations for change to fine tune competitive advantage and market response as well as a broad range of issues, including information monitoring, future triggers for action and change management options for dealing with the constantly shifting environment.

Key Benefits of Scenario Planning

The key benefits of the Scenario Planning Approach lies in its ability to:

Limit the information that has to be monitored by providing filters from the scenarios for what constitutes important change.
Provide signals from the operating environment that critical change is on its way and more attention needs to be applied to the combination of drivers generating the signal
Correctly interpret how the developments will impact upon value creation and therefore how the change management process should proceed.

This process drives competitiveness, and increases profitability by;